Can YouTube Predict the 2018 MTV Video Music Award Winners?
I really (really) hope not.
I am known to judge the cultural significance of something based on cold, hard numbers. AKA, how many people enjoy the thing—regardless of the quality of said people’s taste. (Read: last year I called Despacito the best song of all time based on evidence that it broke just about every streaming record, and became the most popular video on YouTube ever. I am known to also frequently defend Ed Sheeran, The Kardashians and poorly reviewed blockbuster movies. My justification: popular pop culture has to be popular for a reason!)
And so, when YouTube slid into my inbox suggesting that they could predict Sunday’s VMA winners, I was intrigued. Their methodology: count the “global YouTube views on official videos from July 1, 2017 to July 1, 2018.” Makes sense, right? Let’s see how this methodology holds up against my personal thoughts and predictions.
Video of the Year
Nominees: Ariana Grande – “No Tears Left to Cry,” Bruno Mars – “Finesse (Remix)” [ft. Cardi B], Camila Cabello – “Havana” [ft. Young Thug], The Carters – “APES**T,” Childish Gambino – “This Is America,” Drake – “God’s Plan”
Who YouTube thinks will win:
Drake — “God’s Plan”
776,843,171 views
A great video, no doubt. And it is, according to the 6ix God, the most important thing he’s ever done in his career.
Who should win:
Childish Gambino — “This is America” 369,283,436 views
Remember how, in his Golden Globe acceptance speech for Best Series, Musical or Comedy, the musician Childish Gambino also known as Donald Glover the actor said: “I really wanna thank the Migos—not for being in the show, but for making ‘Bad and Boujee.’ Like, that’s the best song, ever, so … um, yeah.” We need to give this man more candid moments with a microphone, gilded trophy in hand!!! Plus, you know, “This is America,” is a total work of genius and likely the most important piece of culture to come out of these past 12 months.
Song of the Year
Nominees: Bruno Mars – “Finesse (Remix)” [ft. Cardi B], Camila Cabello – “Havana” [ft. Young Thug], Drake – “God’s Plan”, Dua Lipa – “New Rules”, Ed Sheeran – “Perfect”, Post Malone – “rockstar” [ft. 21 Savage]
Who YouTube thinks will win:
Dua Lipa – “New Rules”
1,391,388,550 views
Fun choreography, pastel hues and an all-girls slumber party turned dance party turned pool party. It’s a summertime pop music sundae, and YouTube viewers are eating it up — over and over and over.
Who should win:
Yeah, this checks out. I have heard this song 234837 times, and I still like it. That’s not easy to do! Camila Cabello’s “Havana” is also a strong contender in this category, though I’ve probably onlt heard that song 234833 times.
Best Collaboration
Nominees: Bebe Rexha ft. Florida Georgia Line – “Meant to Be,” Bruno Mars – “Finesse (Remix)” [ft. Cardi B], The Carters – “APES**T,” Jennifer Lopez – “Dinero” [ft. DJ Khaled & Cardi B], Logic – “1-800-273-8255” [ft. Alessia Cara & Khalid], N.E.R.D – “Lemon” [ft. Rihanna]
Who YouTube thinks will win:
Bebe Rexha ft. Florida Georgia Line – “Meant to Be” 538,761,130 views
I have never intentionally listened to this song, and yet I somehow know all of the words?! Weird. After watching the music video for the first time five minutes ago, I’ve decided I will be very upset if this country collab wins anything.
Who should win:
The Carters — “Apeshit” 101,320,599 views
Obviously. No explanation needed.
What I’ve learned:
Okay, so if “Meant to Be” has five times the views of “Apeshit,” I retract absolutely everything I said about equating popularity with cultural significance. I was very, very wrong, and will no longer defend popular culture based on numbers alone.